Sorry for the long absence. I was busy. I hope I can keep it up again. Here's what I thought you'd like to hear about today:

1. What's Really Going on in Basra?
2. What Really Went on at Bear Stearns?
3. What would a Hillary Presidency Look Like?
4. What's Really Going on with FISA?
5. What's Really Going on with Real ID?

What's Really Going on in Basra?

The anti-war media, like the NY Times and the Washington Post, have been spinning the recent uptick in violence in Iraq as a loss for the Americans and the Iraqi government, and a win for Muqtada al-Sadr. Here is the Times on April 1:

Last week, Iraq's defense minister, Abdul Kadir al-Obeidi, conceded that the government's military efforts in Basra met with far more resistance than expected. Many Iraqi politicians say that Mr. Maliki's political capital has been severely depleted by the Basra campaign and that he is in the curious position of having to turn to Mr. Sadr, a longtime rival, for a way out.

David Price writing at Dean's World, in a post headlined: Sadr's Triumphant Surrender writes

I haven't seen the media swoon this hard over a militant anti-American in decades. Is Sadr the new Che?

To get another view of events in Iraq, I listened to the Pentagon podcast recording of a press conferences in Iraq with Major General Rick Lynch.

We've heard from him before on the Wizbang podcast. He has a rather direct approach to events on the ground, a refreshing change from the spin of the Times. Lynch has been in charge of the area south of Baghdad for the past 13 months. In this clip he summarizes the progress he has made over that time, in terms of numbers of attacks per day, down from 25 to 2, or a 90% reduction.

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In that clip Gen. Lynch attributes the end of hostilities to his success on the battlefield. In the minds of the press, the violence stopped because Sadr told his side to stop. Both are true, of course, but it's a matter of what caused what. He is also asked about reconciliation with his enemies. He has an interesting response.

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He clearly is not happy with Iran sending munitions to kill his soldiers. And an unhappy General Lynch is going to make the enemy in Iraq very unhappy.

What Really Went on at Bear Stearns?

The recent melt down of the investment bank Bear Stearns as a result of a gradual, and then suddenly quite steep decline in the value of their asset base, which included many derivatives based on mortgage backed securities. Here is a somewhat simplified description of the events by the head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke,

here describing the events that lead up to the merger of Bear into JP Morgan Chase on Sunday March 16 for $2 a share, down from $160 a share less than 12 months ago. The focus is on a liquidity crisis. Their assets on the books were significant, but they could not get access to them when they needed them due to other firms not wanting to do business with them.

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So the fed extended liquidity to Bear to help them get to the weekend, when they then assisted with negotiations for the merger with JP Morgan Chase. But what is the taxpayer at risk in this arrangement? There is talk of a $30b bailout by the Fed. In fact what happened was the Fed extended credit terms and received assets in return that were "marked to market". This is a term in the financial community that reflects the valuing of an asset from its book value to how much a willing buyer would pay for it. Here is Bernanke explaining that to Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota. The Senator's speech is slurred due to the emergency brain surgery that saved his life in 2006. Back then, he was rushed to the hospital to repair serious bleeding in the brain. That he has recovered well enough to conduct questioning at this hearing is remarkable. He asks some excellent questions. The first question is about risk to the taxpayers, and the other is about the Moral Hazard problem. This is the economic term for the idea that if the government helps one firm out of a jam, others will behave in a more risky manner, knowing that they will get the same treatment if they get in trouble. Regulators take extra care to prevent the creation of a moral hazard by preserving risk.

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Later on, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange commission, Christopher Cox discusses role of the SEC and the capitalization of Bear Stearns. Bear Stearns was in fact solvent throughout the crisis. The problem was that no other firm would lend them cash, even if the loan was backed by solvent assets, like treasury securities, the most risk-free investment in existence.

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Keep these facts in mind when you hear people like Hillary Clinton and others claim that the fed bailed out Wall Street, but can't afford to bail out Main Street. Speaking of Hillary Clinton, our next topic is...

What would a Hillary Presidency Look Like?

I am not a fan of Hillary Clinton. As my Wizbang colleagues have repeatedly pointed out, she is notto be trusted. Here she is on Jay Leno's show talking about a mythical 11 year old boy's remarks to here. Thanks to Rus Roberts at Cafe Hyak for pointing out this clip, also available on Wizbang Blue.

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What that remark points out is Hillary's total confidence that she can fix any and all problems. If someone's hourly wage is too low, just legislate a higher one. If the firm that employs the person can only pay a fixed amount, legislate no reduction in hours. As Rus identifies, this is foolishness on stilts:

I wish Jay Leno had pointed out that the cut in hours was the result of passing the minimum wage--that it was as inevitable as gravity. I wish he'd said that the story showed how the minimum wage is a false promise of prosperity. I wish he'd pointed out that fighting isn't enough, caring isn't enough, that prosperity can't be legislated any more than self-interest can be made illegal. I wish Jay Leno had said that when you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is to stop digging.

And if that little boy really exists, I'd like to tell him that a Senator fighting for you is a losing proposition. You have to fight for yourself. If your Mom wants more money, she needs to go back to school or work a second job. And as for you, stay in school. It's the best way to avoid earning the minimum wage.

What's Really Going on with FISA?

The Democrats in Congress have blocked the renewal of a modification of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA. As a result, the process of watching and listening to terrorists in foreign countries is more difficult now that it was before Congress mandated that the modifications expire. Here is a clip from Attorney General Michael Mukasey appearance at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco. This section is part of the question and answer session after the speech. There are two issues that are holding up the FISA modifications. The first is the ability to listen to phone conversations of suspected terrorists when the conversation signal goes through wires in the United States, and the second is immunity from lawsuits against the phone companies who provide the access to those lines. This clip deals with the immunity issue.

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Later on Mukasey also talks about the need to know what the terrorists are talking about. He is asked if we profile muslims at airports.

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He clearly takes is personally.

What's Really Going on with Real ID?

There is a lot of bunk out there on the subject of the Real ID Act, which is Homeland Security's attempt to improve the identity cards people use to board planes, cash checks, and authenticate potential employees, namely drivers licenses. Here is the Governor of Montana on NPR blowing smoke about the Act:

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He is right that this is an unfunded mandate. In fact, that is probably his primary objection. He'd like to get money to pay for the infrastructure that will be required to support Real ID. What he is not saying is what the act actually will do. For that, we can listen to a speech at the Heritage Foundation on January 16 by Stewart Baker, Assistant Secretary for Policy, U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Governor Schweitzer is not telling the truth about Real ID. Surprised?

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So it's not just a matter of some high school students faking ID's. There will be an online authentication process to ensure that a document presented is what was issued. The objections to Real ID are from governors holding the fed's hostage for money to buy systems to track identities, and from others who are using the threat of big government to scare people and prevent the adoption of safe and effective means of issuing identification cards. I recommend listening to the entire presentation at the Heritage web site.

Driving God out of the Public Square - Secularists and Bigots Attack Romney

On my last podcast I played a clip from Mitt Romney's Faith in America speech. Since then, he has been praised by Republicans, and condemned by Democrats. Big surprise I guess. But the criticisms have all been over his statement that Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom. Some have claimed that this would exclude agnostics and atheists from government. Is anyone surprised that a speech called Faith in America is calling for more faith? Some are claiming that he is calling for a theocracy. I missed that part, somehow.

Here is Newt Gingrich on This Week with George Stephanopoulos challenging the host's views on Romney's speech and American History.

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I was intrigued, so I found an audio clip at American Rhetoric of an actor reading Lincoln's second inaugural address. It was given less than two months before he was assassinated. And it is frankly religious. Listen to the last half of this very short address. I think you will recognize the last few lines.

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Stirring words, indeed. But the talking heads on This Week were ready to hang Romney for his modest effort. Listen to Sam Donaldson and Cokie Roberts.

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Sam claims that it's getting much much closer to a theocracy; Frightening; Encroachment into the government. All Bunk.

But for a really off the rails criticism of Romney, we have to go to MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell. Never one to hold back on his true feelings, Lawrence dragged up ancient history on the LDS church to attack Romney with both barrels. Here he is on The McLaughlin Group. Hold on to your hats.

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Good for Pat Buchanan, one of my least favorite Republican pundits for asking if Romney's Mormonism disqualifies him from being President, and if past condoning of slavery by Christians disqualify them from running for office. O'Donnell is unhinged.

He appeared on Hugh Hewitt's show after this rant to continue the bile against Romney. Hugh asked why he was only criticizing the politely religious, instead of the Islamofascists.

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What a wimp. Only point out the flaws of the safe groups, not the dangerous ones.

Gates on the NIE - It's not Policy, it's the Independent CIA

Last week's release of the National Intelligence Estimate has been very controversial. Some have cited the cessation of the Iranian nuclear weapons program to call into question the belicose rhetoric of the Bush administration. World War III and all that. Secretary Robert Gates spoke on the subject of the NIE to some of our allies in Bahrain last week. I'm going to play to excerpts, the first from the speech and the second from the questions after the talk. Thanks to the Pentagon Channel Podcast for the audio.

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I can see what trouble this independent intelligence community is to those responsible and accountable for government policy. How can our allies trust us when those who must formulate and implement the policy are tossed to the wolves by unaccountable spooks bent on bringing down Bush?

More Progress in Iraq - Permanent Progress

I have tremendous respect for Maj. Gen. W.E. Gaskin, the top man in Anbar Province. As the Pentagon Channel described it:

MajGen W.E. Gaskin, Commanding General, MNF-West, II Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward), provides Pentagon reporters with an update of ongoing operations in western Iraq, Dec 10, 2007

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Let's hope we can get something done in the six generations of animosity that Al Qaeda in Iraq has generated in Anbar.

The next clip illustrates one of the talking points of the anti-war crowd. I've heard two false claims recently. The first is that ethnic cleansing and newly constructed walls and baricades separating Sunnis and Shia is resonsible for the decline in violence in Iraq. The second is that Anbar province was starting to calm down before the surge, so the Marines have nothing to do with the decrease of violence there, now about 90% less than before. Here is Gaskin responding to the latter of those two canards.

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Here's another index of the success in Iraq. It's part of a news conference with Marine Commandant Conway at the Pentagon talking about the requirement for MRAPs, the Mine Resistant Ambush Protection vehicles that the Pentagon convinced Congress to pay several billion dollars for last year to prevent the loss of life and limb that IED's were causing in Iraq. The MRAP is more resistant to IED's than the Humvee. Now the Marines have cut their request, ever since the violence has gone down. Here's Conway:

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Want to know how much better things are going? Look at how bad the stock price of Force Protection is. Force Protection (FRPT) is one of the only pure play MRAP companies in the market. It's down from $24 in October to $6 this week. On WizbangPodcast.com you can see the chart.

Live by the sword, and all that.

Of course all of this success is having little effect on the Democratically controlled House. Nancy Pelosi's strategy is to continue to seek to pull troops out at every opportunity, regardless of the futility of the gesture. So far, I think she has passed a dozen resolutions, bills, budgets, and other actions in the house, all of which have either been killed in the Senate or vetoed by the President. It's clear that her strategy is to loose as many times as she can, in the vain hopes that it will frustrate her Democratic base enough to increase her majority in the House and Senate. But the frustration she must be feeling at her non-stop failures appears to have affected her brain. Here she is at her last weekly press conference before the holiday break, railing against the Republicans.

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No, Nancy, we don't love war. We hate losing. We like to win. And we value a stable, secure, and self defensible Iraq that can be an ally in the war on terror. And we just might get it, too, despite your efforts to force a defeat on our military. Bozo.

Huckabee's Conversion on Illegal Immigration - The Fastest Recovery in Political History

I'm no fan of Mike Huckabee. His stand on taxation and big government drive me up the wall. Take this interchange during the CNN-YouTube debate on the question of federal support for a trip to Mars.

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You've got to love Tancredo's realistic conservative comeback to Huckabee's call for more money. Later on Romney said that it reminded him of being Governor of Massachusetts, where people were constantly coming to him with great ideas that were wastes of taxpayer money. Another Huckabee flaw is his support for scholarships for illegal immigrants while governor of Arkansas. He was confronted about this expertly by George Stephanopoulos on ABC's This Week last Sunday. Thanks to the Corner for pointing out a post by David Sanders of the Arkansas News Bureau.

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I'm going to read David Sanders posting here:

His logic capsized. Apparently for Huckabee, withholding college scholarships or in-state tuition from the children of illegal immigrants is tantamount to the state "punishing" students for the sins of their parents, but withholding Pell grants or financial aid from the children of illegal immigrants is tantamount to the federal government simply not "rewarding" these same students for the sins of their parents?

He is trying to have it both ways.

Stephanopoulos reduced Huckabee, who is often lauded for his rhetorical prowess, to the role of a verbal contortionist who tried to bend and spin his way out of unfamiliar territory. But when he forced Huckabee to project onto the presidency the logic and reasoning that guided him as governor, he exposed an incongruent position and an inherent weakness on an issue important to Republicans.

So with that performance behind him, the current Iowa front-runner Huckabee has been backpedaling fast. Today, four days later, he posted his Plan for Immigration Enforcement and Border Security. It's a decent comprehensive plan to address the problem on the federal level, where most agree it should be dealt with. States and localities have been forced into silly positions by the millions of people who the federal government has allowed into the country illegally. The problem is that he came by this plan only after being called on it by a liberal media person like Stephanopoulos, formerly Clinton's press secretary. Can you imagine how his position on evolution vs. Intelligent Design will resound among the Democrats and independents in November, should he win the nomination? It won't be pretty.

Romney's Faith in America Speech - What does it mean for the Evangelical Vote

It's no secret that Romney has trouble convincing evangelical Christians that it would be safe to nominate a member of the LDS church for President. Many of the Christian conservatives just don't like what the church stands for, nor their aggressive conversion and missionary efforts. His religion is also a problem for the Democrats, who don't like anyone who wears their faith so openly. It makes liberals feel creepy. Here is NPR's Robert Seigel talking to Romney on religion last week. Thanks to the



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